Volume 9 Number 4

Fall 2000

Constitutional Watch
     A country-by-country update on constitutional politics in Eastern Europe and the ex-USSR

Lithuania - In parliamentary elections on October 8, the electorate dealt a humiliating blow to the largest party in the ruling coalition, the Homeland Union (Lithuanian Conservatives) (HU[LC]), which barely cleared the parliamentary threshold. The biggest winner was the left-of-center Social Democratic Coalition (SDC), composed in part of ex-communists and led by former president Algirdas Brazauskas.

Voters were expressing their frustration with the economic situation. Unemployment had risen from 6.4 percent in 1998 to 8.4 percent in 1999, and while there has been some growth in GDP most citizens have not felt the effects in their day-to-day lives. The SDC, which includes the Lithuanian Democratic Labor Party (LDLP, the former communist party which led the government from 1992 to 1996) and the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), won 51 seats in the 141-member Seimas, or parliament. Although SDC secured the greatest number of seats, it failed to gain an absolute majority and was ultimately forced into opposition during postelection coalition building. Turnout in the election was 59 percent compared with 53 percent in 1996.

(According to electoral law, 70 seats are contested in the proportional ballot of party lists. The remaining 71 seats are selected in individual constituencies. In the individual constituencies, the "first past the post" system has been in effect since July, when the then-ruling HU[LC] pushed through an amendment to the electoral law. The amended law dropped the provision for a second round in situations where the winner in the first round received less than 50 percent of the vote in individual constituencies. Now the first-past-the-post principle is limited only by the requirement that at least 40 percent of the electorate must turn out for an election to be valid.)

The right-of-center Lithuanian Liberal Union (LLU), led by the former prime minister and the current mayor of Vilnius, Rolandas Paksas, came in second. LLU’s party list took 17 percent (16 seats) and won 18 seats in individual constituencies for a total of 34 seats. Arturas Paulauskas’s left-wing New Union (Social Liberals) (NU[SL]) was second among the party lists with 20 percent but won only 11 seats in individual constituencies for a total of 29 seats. HU(LC) suffered a largely expected defeat, although the party still cleared the 5 percent threshold necessary to enter parliament. In the proportional ballot, HU(LC) collected 8 percent (8 seats) but added only one victory in the individual constituencies, thus ending in fourth place with only 9 seats.

Perhaps the biggest upset of the election was the defeat of the Center Union (CU), a leader in the opinion polls just a year ago. CU came in fourth in the March local elections with 10 percent, and pollsters had been predicting a strong fourth place ahead of HU(LC). In the parliamentary race, CU fell below 3 percent in the proportional ballot—thus failing to clear the threshold—and won just three seats in individual constituencies. Romualdas Ozolas, longtime CU leader, resigned after the defeat. CU’s decline can be partly explained by its staunch support of the scandal-tainted deputy, Audrius Butkevicius, who had served time in jail for attempted extortion. (See Lithuania Update, EECR, Vol. 9, No. 3, Summer 2000.)

The xenophobic and anti-Semitic Freedom Union (FU) garnered just over 1 percent in the proportional ballot but, to the dismay of many mainstream parties, won a seat in the race for individual constituencies. Vytautas Sustauskas, the infamous leader of the marginal group, was elected in the Kaunas constituency, where he has served as mayor since March’s local elections. To the dismay of HU(LC), the former prime minister, Gediminas Vagnorius, arguably a source of HU(LC)’s recent floundering at the polls, won in a provincial individual constituency. Yet HU(LC) might take comfort in the fact that Vagnorius’s splinter party won just 2 percent and failed to clear the threshold.

The victory celebration of Brazauskas and SDC was short, since the parties in the number two and three slots—the Lithuanian Liberal Union (LLU) and NU(SL)—immediately announced their intention to form a coalition. Together, the two parties control 63 seats in parliament and outnumber SDC, which holds just 51. This initiative was promptly endorsed by President Valdas Adamkus, who has been promoting something called "new politics"—without defining exactly what this term means—and regularly meeting with the leaders of the two parties since summer.

After the election, LDLP and LSDP announced their intention to merge fully before Christmas. For at least ten years, LSDP has resisted LDLP’s merger offer. LSDP’s reluctance was partly motivated by its unwillingness to share the financial (approximately $25,000) and technical support they receive from the Socialist International and partly by the fear of being swallowed by the much bigger and more experienced LDLP. Also, there were ideological differences over LDLP’s policies while the party was in power from 1992 to 1996. At that time, LSDP, then in opposition, accused LDLP of pursuing "liberal-capitalist" policies. But being in opposition itself after 1996, LDLP gave up some of its proposed measures, which were clearly designed for broad popular support, and returned to more classic socialist ideas.

Long years without significant political success have taken their toll on LSDP in the form of a split and change of the party leadership. LDLP hopes the merger will solidify the Lithuanian left, but also, undoubtedly it wants to get its hands on the funding from the Socialist International as well as become a member of the international alliance. Moreover, the merger is, from LDLP’s perspective, a welcome possibility to acquire the name of "Social Democrats," and thus take another step away from the party’s original, pre-1989 name: the Lithuanian Communist Party (LCP). The new name comes at some cost—it is possible that LDLP alone would have done better in the elections since some voters were scared by the radical ideas of Vytenis Andriukaitis, LSDP’s leader. Among other things, he wants to replace the flat tax with a progressive one. Andriukaitis also demands that the government retain 51 percent ownership in any future privatization of state enterprises and that the Mazeikiai Nafta refinery again be placed under government control.

Brazauskas, the moderate and populist former leader of LCP and LDLP, was not on SDC’s party list and did not participate in the election. It is likely that Brazauskas was sure of SDC’s victory and of a consequent government post, and so he did not add his name to the party list. But with the SDC’s failure to form a government, Brazauskas has been left without a parliamentary mandate. Formally, Brazauskas is not even a member of LDLP, since he did not restore his membership after it was suspended when he became president in 1993 (as required by Art. 83 of the Constitution). His name contributed to SDC’s victory in a very direct way, however—the coalition was listed in the proportional-election ballots as "Algirdas Brazauskas’s Social Democratic Coalition." In terms of popularity, Brazauskas is on par with the current president, Valdas Adamkus; his rating routinely hovers above 60 percent.

On October 19, the new parliament convened. As required by Art. 92 of the Constitution, Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius resigned and was promptly appointed by Adamkus as a caretaker until the new government was formed. On the same day, Paulauskas (NU[SL]) was elected parliamentary chairman. On October 23, Adamkus nominated Rolandas Paksas (LLU) as his candidate for prime minister. The coalition of the "new politics" passed its first test of strength easily—Paulauskas was elected with 76 votes against 53 votes for Ceslovas Jursenas, the SDC candidate, who had served as a parliamentary chairman in 1992–96. In parliament, the "new politics" coalition clearly outmaneuvered SDC in amassing the support of numerous small factions and independent deputies. Four other parties support the LLU–NU(SL) coalition: the Farmers Party with four seats, CU with three, Lithuanian Poles’ Electoral Action with two, and the Lithuanian Christian Democrats with one seat. With these, the coalition can count on 63 votes—still short of a majority in the 141-seat parliament. Yet with occasional support from other parties, it seems that the "new politics" coalition may often be able to summon a majority in parliament.

Paksas is thought to adhere to a business-friendly platform of tax cuts and streamlined government. He was prime minister for five months in 1999 but stepped down over the controversial privatization of the Mazeikiai Nafta oil refinery when a third of the Mazeikiai shares were sold to the American company, Williams International. (See Lithuania Update, EECR, Vol. 8, No. 4, Fall 1999.) Paksas had been the mayor of Vilnius before he held the premiership and returned to the mayoral office after local elections in March. Judging by the results of the parliamentary elections, the public disregarded media reports on certain inconsistencies in Vilnius’s finances during Paksas’s rule.

So far, the "new politics" alliance has been successful despite the wide range of opinion within its membership. The presumably shaky cohabitation of LLU and NU(SL) could be threatened not only by ideological differences but also by the relative inexperience of Paulauskas’s and Paksas’s teams. Paulauskas’s abilities are a relative unknown, while Paksas’s spell as prime minister was too short to judge his competence. In terms of experience, both LDLP and their antagonist, HU(LC), are well ahead of LLU and NU(SL). On the other hand, the "new politics" coalition has the valuable advantage of being relatively sleaze-free and of offering fresh blood—their leading politicians are all in their early forties, while the leaders of LDLP and the old guard HU(LC) are in their late fifties.

In any case, the new parliament is more fragmented than the previous one. That could mean a more volatile political climate, closer perhaps to what is seen in neighboring Latvia. This situation could provide greater political opportunities for President Adamkus or his team of advisers, among whom Darius Kuolys is emerging as a behind-the-scenes power player. Kuolys, who was an education minister in the first postindependence government, is believed to be behind the idea of the "new politics" alliance and other moves that aim both at taming Paulauskas’s populist left-wing instincts and eliminating Brazauskas, along with his coalition, from power.

The new parliament and government face the difficult task of seeking ever more evasive EU and NATO membership. To catch up with Estonia and Latvia, Lithuania must improve its exports and attract more Western investment. The new government is supposed to peg the national currency, the litas, to the euro instead of the dollar some time next year. All this must be accomplished under the vigilant eye of the recession-weary population.vThe Mazeikiai Nafta refinery is back on the agenda after the Constitutional Court’s October 18 ruling, arguably one of the most vague and ambiguous in its history. Among other things, the Court decided that the government guarantee of a $344 million loan to Williams International to restore the operational capital of the ailing refinery is unconstitutional. The guarantee was a cornerstone of the deal and the focus of fierce opposition to the sale. Paksas resigned because of opposition to the loan; he argued that cash-strapped Lithuania could not afford to assume such a liability.

The Court found that the government cannot take on substantial financial responsibilities in favor of a strategic investor (Williams) because this violates Art. 4 of the Constitution, which states that the "people shall exercise the supreme sovereign power vested in them either directly or through their democratically elected representatives"; Art. 5.1, which states that "in Lithuania, the powers of the state shall be exercised by the Seimas, the President of the Republic and Government, and the Judiciary"; and part of Art. 46.3, which declares that the "state shall regulate economic activity so that it serves the general welfare of the people." The implications of the Court decision are unclear, but an annulment of the deal seems unlikely. The Mazeikiai complex includes an oil terminal, a pipeline, and a refinery and is expected to have a turnover of more than $500 million this year.vWhile Lithuania was being overwhelmed with electoral politics and constitutional confusion, Aleksandras Lileikis died at the age of 93. Lileikis, the wartime chief of Vilnius’s secret police, died in late September before his suspended trial could rule on the charges against him. He was suspected of handing over more than 70 Jews to Nazi executioners. The trial of Lileikis’s deputy, Kazys Gimzauskas, 92, has been delayed since a medical commission ruled that he was mentally and physically unfit to participate in the trial.

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