Volume 10 Number 4

Fall 2001

Constitutional Watch
     A country-by-country update on constitutional politics in Eastern Europe and the ex-USSR

Poland - Poland's parliamentary elections, on September 23, not only defeated the current ruling coalition but pushed the former ruling party, Electoral Action Solidarity (EAS), as well as Freedom Union (FU)-also a member of the government until fairly recently-completely out of parliament. In the ballot, the coalition composed of the Democratic Left Alliance (DLA) and the Labor Union (LU) was the victor with 41 percent of the votes, which translated into 216 seats in the 460-seat Sejm (parliament), falling just short of a majority. The second largest formation in the lower house is the recently formed Civic Platform (CP), made up of many former FU members, with 12.7 percent of the votes (65 seats). It is followed by Self-Defense (SD), with 10.2 percent (53 seats); Law and Justice (LJ), 9.5 percent (44 seats); the Polish People's Party (PPP), 9 percent (42 seats); the League of Polish Families (LPF), 7.9 percent (38 seats); and two seats for the German minority. In the upper house (the Senat, or Senate), the distribution of the 100 seats went as follows: DLA-LU, 75; Senate Bloc 2001, 15; PPP, 4; SD, 2; LPF, 2; and two seats for independent candidates. Senate Bloc 2001 was created before the election by FU, CP, EAS-Right, and LJ in an effort to unite the right wing of the political scene, as a whole, in the Senate race; it is led by Krzysztof Piesiewicz, a politician, lawyer, and a screenwriter from EAS. This year's election also saw a very low turnout of 46.3 percent.

Except for DLA and LU's resounding victory, all of the other results took commentators by surprise. The comparatively low turnout was interpreted as a sign of the political elites' estrangement from ordinary voters. Radical right-wing parties, such as the recently created SD, seemed to fare better in these recent elections. SD is a far-right farmers' union, which is led by Andrzej Lepper, well known for his vociferous protests in recent years when he blocked roads and destroyed wheat headed for the European Union, actions for which he still faces criminal charges. (On October 23, the Appellate Court in Gdansk asked the procurator general to ask the Sejm to remove Lepper's immunity.) The party's program is anti-European, antipathetic to market reform, and attracts people discouraged by the harsh economic conditions that prolonged reform and the transition to a free market economy have brought. The other new political formation is the far-right and extremely radical LPF, led by Zygmunt Wrzodak, Antoni Maciarewicz, Jan Lopuszanski, and Gabriel Jankowski, and is fiercely opposed to EU membership.

FU, previously a member of the government until withdrawing from the coalition in mid-2000, received just 3.1 percent of the votes; failing to meet the 5 percent minimum, it could not reenter parliament. The EAS coalition-which ran as EAS-Right in the elections-gathered 5.6 percent of the votes and thus fell shy of the 8 percent threshold required for coalitions. The elections seemed to spell the end of EAS, an important force in Polish politics that grew out of the anticommunist Solidarnosc movement and trade union. FU and EAS view their electoral defeat as the price paid not only for the budget crisis (discussed below) but for undertaking four major reforms-of administration, pensions, education, and the health system. (See Poland Update, EECR, Vol. 10, No. 1, Winter 2001.)

President Aleksander Kwasniewski, on October 4, nominated Leszek Miller, the leader of DLA, as prime minister (Art. 154). On October 10, Miller announced the government's composition, asking President Kwasniewski to appoint it in its entirety. The ceremony took place on October 19, at the presidential palace in Warsaw. The government is a coalition of three parties: DLA and LU (as in the electoral coalition) and PPP. Without PPP, DLA and LU would have been forced to rule as a minority government. The potential candidates for a third partner were CP and PPP. Despite the support of business and pro-free market circles, which supported CP's joining the government as a guarantee of economic stability, CP refused to join DLA. After long and heated negotiations, which at some point involved SD as well, PPP joined the coalition. PPP and DLA had already governed together in 1993-97. PPP's participation in the government has fueled some anxiety among Polish political elites looking toward EU membership. Indeed, it is unclear what the party's role as a member of the government might mean for Poland's path to the union. One of Poland's more difficult accession tasks will be reforming the very large agricultural sector. PPP, which touts itself as an agrarian party, might very well oppose some of these difficult reform measures, the pain of which will certainly be borne by Poland's large population of farmers. In addition, nearly 100 seats in the opposition are going to strong opponents of accession-LPF and SD, also a party representing farmers that actually gained more seats than PPP in the recent elections.

The newly formed government gathered for its first meeting on October 20. It discussed mainly the budget crisis, tax reform, and education reform. Prime Minister Miller presented the government's program to the Sejm on October 25. He proclaimed that the government will resolve three issues within the next 100 days-the state's finances, making public administration more efficient, and changing the date of the local elections from the spring to the fall, to be held simultaneously with parliamentary elections. The government's long-term goals involve tackling a number of diverse problems: unemployment, agriculture, health-care reform, public security, and reform of the Ministry of Justice. The government also intends to pursue several other projects, among them education reform, support for small and medium-size enterprises, infrastructure reform, and negotiations with the EU. On October 26, parliament gave the new government a vote of confidence by a vote of 306 to 140.

The new government has not inherited an easy political or economic legacy. A prolonged budget crisis came to a head in mid-2001, when the then-minister of finance Jerzy Bauc announced that the budget deficit in 2001 would be more than twice the amount previously expected. More than 90 percent of the anticipated deficit had already been accounted for in the first half of the year. When originally adopted, the 2001 budget included a 4.5 percent growth rate with 7 percent inflation; it projected 161 billion zlotys ($40 billion) in income and 181.6 billion zlotys ($45 billion) in expenditures for a 20 billion zlotys deficit ($5 billion). In July, it became clear that these figures had changed and the budget had to be amended-the new figures were 2.3 percent for growth with 6 percent inflation. Budget income was lowered by 8.6 billion zlotys ($2.2 billion), while the deficit grew by the same amount.

On August 28, Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner, the deputy minister of finance, was named minister when Bauc was dismissed because of the burgeoning budget emergency. In early September, during the electoral campaign and while already completing work on the budget for 2002, the government decided that further savings of 8.8 billion zlotys in 2001 were crucial. The announcement fueled much speculation about Poland's public finances. On October 26, the minister of finance in the new government announced that a further reduction of 8.5 billion zlotys ($2 billion) in expenditures would be necessary to control the growing deficit.

Meanwhile, the 2002 budget suffered problems of creation and execution similar to those of the 2001 budget. According to Art. 222 of the Constitution, the draft budget must be submitted to the Sejm by the end of September. The rushed draft was prepared by Buzek's departing government but will be put into place by Miller's new government, which has already stated that it will amend the draft. As it stands, the draft estimates growth at 2.5-3 percent, inflation at 5.1-5.5 percent, and a deficit of 40 billion zlotys ($10 billion, or around 3.4-3.5 percent of GDP).

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